An analysis of betting odds from My Betting Edge suggests seven-time world champion Lewis Hamilton has a 14% likelihood of securing the Drivers’ Championship in his debut year with the Scuderia, highlighting both the challenges and potential ahead.
Hamilton’s transition to Ferrari signifies a major shift after 11 seasons with Mercedes, where he claimed six of his seven titles. His move has sparked debate—some doubt whether Ferrari can provide a title-winning car, while others believe his vast experience could be the missing piece in their championship puzzle.
Currently, bookmakers rank Hamilton behind favorites such as Max Verstappen, Charles Leclerc, and Lando Norris. His implied 14% probability of taking the title indicates a belief that, while not the frontrunner, he remains a threat.
This cautious outlook is influenced by Ferrari’s inconsistent recent performances and the uncertainty of how Hamilton will adjust to a new car and team after over a decade at Mercedes.
Ferrari’s last Drivers’ Championship came in 2007 with Kimi Räikkönen. Breaking this long drought with Hamilton at the helm is a key talking point among analysts and fans. While his talent is unquestionable, integrating into a new team and adapting to a different car dynamic presents a significant hurdle.
The internal competition at Ferrari could also shape Hamilton’s season. His teammate, Charles Leclerc, is expected to be a strong contender, making intra-team battles as crucial as the fights against Red Bull and McLaren.