There is a 7/9 (43.75 percent) chance that Sir Lewis Hamilton will depart Mercedes at the end of this year, according to sports betting intelligence firm AEX Analytics.
The seven-time champion took an uncomfortable amount of time to put pen to paper on a new contract with the German side after the 2020 season, but he eventually pledged his future to Mercedes until the end of 2023.
Hamilton became embroiled in a mammoth title battle with Max Verstappen in 2021 and, after winning 18 races between them last year, the Dutchman came out on top.
That success was not without controversy though after race director Michael Masi made a bizarre Safety Car restart decision, leading to a final lap overtake from the Dutchman.
Hamilton’s future was again cast into doubt during the off-season when he took an extended break from the public eye, but he returned ahead of pre-season testing, and was ready to tackle the 2022 campaign.
However, the eight-time champions have offered him and George Russell an underperforming W13 car this year, which has struggled under the new technical regulations.
The impact has been felt both out on track and on the timing screens, and neither Briton has won a race this season.
Russell out-raced his team-mate seven times in a row after Hamilton’s podium at the Bahrain Grand Prix, although that was partly down to the 37-year-old running experimental set-ups.
There have been improvements to the car since Baku, with the two drivers taking their tally up to 13 podiums between them in the last nine rounds.
The last of those came in Monza through Russell, while Hamilton came back from 19th on the grid to finish fifth.
During that weekend, the 103-time race winner affirmed that he has no intention of stopping any time soon.
Despite being under contract until the end of next year though, figures suggest that there is a perhaps unexpectedly high chance of him either leaving Formula 1, or joining another team.